China’s government bond market has opened 2025 with a clear warning for policymakers: without more determined stimulus, investors expect deflationary pressures to become even more entrenched in the world’s second-largest economy.
中国政府债券市场在2025年开市之际，向政策制定者发出了一个明确警告：如果没有更果决的刺激措施，投资者预计通缩压力将在这个全球第二大经济体变得更加根深蒂固。
China’s 10-year bond yield, a benchmark for economic growth and inflation expectations, fell to a record low of less than 1.6 per cent during trading last week and has since hovered close to that level.
中国10年期国债收益率——衡量经济增长和通胀预期的基准——在上周的交易中跌至不到1.6%的历史低点，此后一直在这一水平附近徘徊。
Crucially, the whole yield curve has shifted downwards rather than steepening, suggesting investors are alarmed about the long-term outlook and not just anticipating short-term cuts to interest rates.
至关重要的是，整个收益率曲线不是变陡，而是向下移动，这表明投资者对长期前景感到担忧，而不仅仅是预期短期降息。